Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi continues to put up strong numbers in important contract year

The 2023 season saw an impressive bounce-back from the left-hander, as not only did he lock down a rotation spot out of Spring Training, but he ran away with it for the rest of the year.

Through 32 starts and an MLB career-high 167 2/3 innings, Kikuchi dropped his ERA and FIP to 3.85 and 4.12 respectively while commanding the strike zone to the tune of a 2.6 BB/9, besting teammate and Cy-Young finalist Kevin Gausman (2.7) as well as newcomer Chris Bassitt (2.7). Kikuchi allowed just 72 earned runs on the year and struck out 181 batters, posting a 9.7 K/9.

In particular, he found a groove following the All-Star game, where he posted a 2.81 FIP through 14 starts and 74 1/3 innings to finish out the season. Overall, it was a solid bounce-back campaign for a pitcher that was fighting for a rotation spot earlier that spring, and one that set him up well for the 2024 campaign.

Kikuchi in 2024

So far this year, Kikuchi has taken things to a new level on the mound. Through in starts and 52 innings, the Jays starter has authored a 2.60 ERA while allowing just 15 earned runs on the campaign. He owns 55 strikeouts (9.5 K/9) compared to 10 walks (1.7 BB/9) and has held opponents to a .239 average and a .624 OPS while posting an 8.1 H/9.

Kikuchi has struck out seven or more batters on five occasions, including three contests where he racked up nine apiece, and has allowed three or more runs in just two of his starts this year. His previous outing on May 10th also saw him pitch into the eighth inning, while the one-time All-Star has reached the six-inning plateau on all but three starts so far this campaign.

Even more impressively, since the 2023 MLB All-Star Game, Kikuchi owns a 3.8 fWAR, which currently has him ranked fourth across Major League Baseball and ahead of pitchers such as Logan Webb, Corbin Burnes, and Sonny Gray. He also ranks fourth in FIP (2.72) and owns a 9.66 K/9 through that period, ranking 10th. His 3.10 ERA comes in at eighth overall, ahead of names like Cole Ragans, Logan Gilbert, and fellow Blue Jays starter José Berríos, who owns a 3.44 tally.

In 2024, Kikuchi is ranking well in the eyes of statcast, where he boasts a 94th percentile pitching run value while his breaking run value has him sitting in the 98th percentile before today’s game against Baltimore. He owns a 4.8 BB%, ranking in the 87th percentile as well. His curveball alone ranks at a +5 run value while generating a 25.7 whiff% and is the main putaway pitch in his arsenal, holding opponents to a .198 xBA and a .259 SLG, which pairs nicely with his slider offering and mid to high-90s fastball with the occasional changeup.

While his three-year deal at first seemed to be an albatross of a deal, in a contract year where he can test the free agent waters, Kikuchi is quickly starting to enter qualifying offer territory, although there is lots of time between now and October. He’s set to test the free agent waters this offseason barring a Blue Jays extension, a tricky subject for any fan hoping to see players sign on the dotted line alongside José Berríos for the foreseeable future.

For now, the Blue Jays offense needs Yusei Kikuchi to continue keeping the game close night after night, as the team dropped another contest today to bring their record to a 19-23 tally through the first month and a half of the season.